Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Considering my previous evaluations at www.receiptforlabor.blogspot.com, I am personally recommending investment in silver and gold stocks, and considering investment in other metal resources and potentially other futures.

Peak oil is going to strike the geomarketplace within an 18-month period, and possibly much sooner in the event of disruptive political and military actions. The industrial and economic consequences of this event have been categorized well on the above website and others. This factor makes stocks in oil favorable to rise, however, such investment will increase the scale of the problem that peak oil will present to the world. As a humanitarian and market-protecting measure, I recommend against further investment in oil.

Alongside peak oil, the American economy has been running in debt consequentially deeper. Allan Greenspan and the FED have given substantially negative reports of recession and currency crisis in the next 3-5 years. During 2000-2005, America has inflated its currency by ~35%, and reduced their real holdings in industry and business considerably. American wealth has shifted to be in the form of large *stock* holdings and debts and finance over industry and business holdings. This is dissolution of economic strength in favor of short term economic volume, possibly motivated by the conscious arrival of peak oil, political expectations of the 2007 season, or other unknown fiscal events.

It is very likely that American currency will massively shift downward in value. This will by itself rise the price of precious currency metals. Investing heavily in these metals will also safeguard retirements and other sums of money better than bank accounts subject to inflation and devaluation. Other safe areas to invest are likely real estate and certain futures stocks, also likely to rise in price. Considering this news, it would be fiscal suicide to maintain large sums in banks, cash, or cash-dealing or cash-dependent stocks.

I would advise anyone thinking of a bond, especially longer term bonds, to drop them immediately. I would advise someone with a 5 year bond they bought yesterday to sell it within 6 months for the cash, even at a risk, and invest it in more secure elements. An American fiscal crisis would have the effect of reducing the dollar to it's real value.

I would advise Americans to move money from their retirement 'funds', if they contain bonds or bank savings or general market stocks. It is extremely likely that peak oil and an American currency crisis will tank the stock market and cause the general economy to perform very poorly, with only a few areas tipping up radically in response to mass devaluation [loss].

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There are an estimated $100T of oil left in the ground. It is probable that the people who own this oil want to get as much $ out of it as they can in the most financially stable methods possible. This will be done by all manner of radicaly industrial shiftwork into and through peak oil. Oil sources cannot adequately supply the world's industrial requirements after 2007. Supplementing it with biodiesel, ethanol, and conservation and eventually new technologies could potentially allow it to be shifted down and switched over to other fuel sources as exploration and oil production taper off. But the introduction of new technologies such as water splitting would almost immediately cause oil prices to bottom out, destroying almost all of that $100T in oil remaining. The oil holders expect $100T from this oil, now or over the next 20-30 years. How they choose to get it is up to industry and the world market, influenced by a multiple-trillion-dollar[-annually] interest, and a series of disorganized and uneducated interests.

Technologies such as water splitting or industrial efficiency can dramatically shift the economic environment, cutting out expensive middlemen to produce greater efficiency and lower cost of living, trading wealth for quality. It is very probable that we will se a large amount of wealth disappear in the coming 5-10 years and for it to be replaced by efficient and quality-oriented systems. This would remove perhaps up to 80% of that $100T expected by oil-holders. This is a very unfavorable transaction for them, even though water splitting technology would cause the world's economic markets to grow by an average ~20% annually [twenty-percent on itself every year] for the next 20 years, well apace of reproduction or any possible consumption, with additional large improvements in many very impoverished areas and certain special fields.

Spiritually I do not believe that God will allow the earth to be destroyed by the pollution that would be released from $100T in oil being burned on earth over the next 30 years, or if He does he will provide refuge for the good and punish those who have destroyed the earth. This is God's way, God's word, and God is always faithful and honest and true.

Invest in silver. The gold market may even take a hit as far as gold-luxury goes. Being luxurious in such a market could be detestable and take hits, even as currency stocks. Silver does have many budding uses in medical and scientific fields. It can produce bacteriostatic water supplies and be filtered out of existing water supplies. It produces excellent speaker cable and is a precious metal. It will not reduce in value when artificial fiat currencies fall, and will in fact rise dramatically when people scramble towards currency-metals when trust markets teeter or shatter.

Investing in futures of items that require a large amount of oil to produce and which are basic needs, may be another good fiscal step. Trading in futures for non-GM foodstocks could be wise. Many 3rd world countries have debt to the IMF and their farmers have shifted to growing exprot crops instead of foods. Farming is also very oil intensive. Food prices may rise reflecting this oil crisis and also due to the broad exportation of foods. Selling at a key moment could make you money on your investment and also save lives.

Investing in automotive stocks or industrial sectors is probably not necessary, as they generally consume oil and transportation and shipping consumes oil, and a general market damper will not favor industrial performance. Think Detriot.

Buying real estate from low- or -uncompetetive markets may be wise, as diffusion from urban areas may be preferrable. Competing to buy urban real estate would not be a wise move, as that value is artificially based on the sustainability of those cities, which is being called into question. Farmland, suburbia, and rural regions may become popular or more habitable, and may be prime locations to build, rent out, or vacation near.

You may also want to consider stocking up on personal food goods, a small amount of ammunition, water purification systems, canned food, solar cookers, shift your house to be oil-free or use oil very efficiently.

Since the stock market and American currency market are very likely to take a dive, I would recommend selling them both *short*. Selling short means to initiate sales of a stock or currency which you do not own to sell. This will give you effectively a [-] negative number of stocks, and turn those stocks into money. If the stock falls in price, you can buy it back, giving you effectively 0 stocks. However, when you sold the stock, the price was lower than when you bought it [back].

A substantial amount of short selling occured on airline companies in the days and hours before 9/11/01 due to insider trading information, signifying that foreknowledge existed.

You have foreknowledge of peak oil and the American currency default. You should buy silver, precious metals, certain futures, and sell short on a wide spread of stock market holdings in semi-conductors and electronics, and possibly automotive companies [which may find their civilian markets reduced].

This is a good way to make a high return on your investments in the unfavorable market to come. If you are interested in the market and general quality of life, you will also consider other factors likely in this market such as the need for considerable charity and education, and a concern for political measures and activism. Take these into consideration as well as economics.

William Bunker
August 16, 2006